strategic war gaming division john fulton

#STRATEGIC WAR GAMING DIVISION JOHN FULTON SERIES#

#STRATEGIC WAR GAMING DIVISION JOHN FULTON SERIES#

This paper describes a series of research efforts over three decades to build such cognitive models, some as complex computer programs and some exceptionally simple. Good cognitive models must avoid mirror-imaging, which implies recognizing ways in which the adversary’s reasoning may be affected by history, culture, personalities, and imperfect information, as well as by objective circumstances. Best estimates of adversary thinking have often been wrong historically. Having alternative models can temper the tendency to base strategy on the best-estimate understanding of the adversary, and can encourage building a strategy that is better hedged and more adaptive.

Simple cognitive models of the adversary are useful in a variety of domains, including national security analysis. Keywords: War games Military strategy Strategic analysis Simulation Decision making. He then illustrates the use of Red Agents with two examples: 1) an assessment of flexible response that illustrates how the rigor required in modeling can change fundamental perceptions about escalation and deescalation and 2) a representation of alternative theater- level Red operational strategies for force employment in the Central Region that demonstrates how critical the strategy variable is in analysis, and shows that it can now be explored, rather than left buried in the script-like databases that concludes that working with Red Agent models is valuable, and has enormous potential. The author begins with a short summary of RSAS architecture and a discussion of reasons for having Red Agents. These knowledge-based models (called Red Agents) can represent alternative mindsets and alternative military strategies. It describes some of the lessons learned from developing political level and theater-commander level decision models for use in the RSAS. This note contains the text of an oral presentation delivered to the third 'Thinking Red in War Games' workshop held in June 1988.

Strategic war gaming division john fulton